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Pythagorean expectation, basketball game

작성자 Uploader : ezmath 작성일 Upload Date: 2016-05-30변경일 Update Date: 2016-05-30조회수 View : 512

Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was (by examining the variation between the two winning percentages). The name comes from the formula's resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem.

The basic formula is:

W = S^2 / (S^2 + A^2)
W : Winning ratio
S : Runs scored
A : Runs allowed

American sports executive Daryl Morey was the first to adapt James' Pythagorean expectation to professional basketball while a researcher at STATS, Inc.. He found that using 13.91 for the exponents provided an acceptable model for predicting won-lost percentages:

W = S^13.91 / (S^13.91 + A^13.91)

Daryl's "Modified Pythagorean Theorem" was first published in STATS Basketball Scoreboard, 1993-94.

Noted basketball analyst Dean Oliver also applied James' Pythagorean theory to professional basketball. The result was similar.
Another noted basketball statistician, John Hollinger, uses a similar Pythagorean formula, except with 16.5 as the exponent.

*** 참고문헌[References] ***

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

W = S^13.91 / (S^13.91 + A^13.91)


변수명 Variable	변수값 Value	변 수 설 명 Description of the variable

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Pythagorean expectation, basketball game

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