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Probability of flood occurrence, risk of flood occurrence

작성자 Uploader : corona 작성일 Upload Date: 2018-08-28변경일 Update Date: 2018-08-28조회수 View : 544

Probability of flood occurrence

Letting the return period or recurrence interval of a flood event as
T,

T = 1 / P(F)
P(F) : probability of flood occurrence having its return period T-years

1) Probability of flood occurrence in a certain year
 P(F) = 1 / T

2) Probability of flood non-occurrence in a certain year
 P(bar F) = 1-P(F) = 1 - 1/T

3) Probability of flood non-occurrence in consecutive n years
 P1(bar F) * P2(bar F) * ... Pn(bar F) = (1 - 1/T)^n

4) Probability of flood occurrence at least once in consecutive n years
 R = 1 - (1 - 1/T)^n
 where, R is called the risk

Calculation results below is expressed in percentage (%).

*** 참고문헌[References] ***

윤용남, 공업수문학, 청문각, 1996
R = 100*(1 - ( 1 - 1/T)^n)
변수명 Variable 변수값 Value 변 수 설 명 Description of the variable


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